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Sept 4th Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

Cincinnati Blog - Mon, 09/04/2017 - 9:49pm
Today is Labor Day, the traditional start of the full campaign season.  Today I am also posting what should be the finalized candidate list.  Four candidates that turned in signatures did not have them verified and failed to make the ballot.  One new write in candidate was added on.  Write in candidates have a much lower threshold to meet, but they don't have their name on the ballot.  If a voter writes them in, they will be counted.  If a voter writes in anyone else not on the ballot, that vote will not count.

Now we get into who might win.  Based on my analysis this year, there are currently four candidates likely to win. That leaves fives seats really up for grabs.  This analysis is based on a key element: enthusiasm is higher with the  Democratic base.  Getting out your base is a requirement for Council wins.  With a wide field of Dems (endorsed and not) that puts a second requirement of being a known credible candidate.  Incumbents generally get that automatically.  Endorsements, money, media attention, and name recognition make up the other common ways of being credible.  I have never seen a non-credible candidate win.

I've added referenced to a couple of conservative leaning endorsement groups, the FOP and PWR PAC, that announced their endorsements recently.

Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)

Likely
David Mann* (D,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed)
Wendell Young* (D endorsed)

In the Mix:
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D)
Ozie Davis III (D, FOP, PWRendorsed)
Tamaya Dennard (D,C, PWR endorsed)
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed)
Leslie Jones (D endorsed)
Greg Landsman (D, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Amy Murray* (R,C, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Jeff Pastor (R, FOP endorsed)
Laure Quinlivan (D)
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I, FOP, PWR and for some reason G endorsed)


Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D)
Manuel Foggie
Henry Frondorf (C, PWR endorsed) (D)
Seth Maney (R, FOP, PWR endorsed)
Tamie Sullivan (G, FOP endorsed) (R)

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I)
Cristina Burcica (I)
Brian Garry (G endorsed) (D)
Kelli Prather (D)
Dadrien Washington (Write-In)


Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

Key
* = Incumbent
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
FOP= Cincinnati Fraternal Order of Police (Union) Endorsement
PWR = Partnership of Westside Residence PAC Endorsement

Post Deadline Update to the 2017 City of Cincinnati Council Candidates

Cincinnati Blog - Fri, 08/25/2017 - 7:38am
27 candidates are on the list, with 8 of those pending on verification of signatures.  A big list, but not as big as it was expected.  8 other candidates had indications they were running.  1 of those 8 was endorsed by the Green Party and another 1 of the 8 had a full website up and running, but couldn't get enough signatures.

1 new candidate, Peterson Mingo, a fairly well known local Minister, surprisingly submitted signatures and is pending to get on the ballot.  His name recognition is his only asset at this point, but even that is clouded by legal trouble he was in regarding city building code violations.  He might get new voters out to polls, which could drive more votes to other candidates, especially in the mayor's race.  No word on who he is supporting in that contest, but he did get help from John Cranley for the legal trouble his was in.

Now the fun begins.  Money is a key element to know who stands the biggest chance, but face to face connections matter.  Endorsements of various groups matter.  The FOP endorsements are out and they skipped two retired police officers and picked all of the Republicans.  Shocked I am not.

I will continue providing updates to this list as the campaign rolls on, but only to shift candidates to new categories as things change.  Predicting candidates in anything other than general categories is pointless, so their may not be much fluctuation.  News coverage, new endorsements, new money are the drives for much of the fluctuation.  Those who are seen to be pressing the flesh, show they are serious.  Those who look like they are professional serious candidates are more likely than those who appear to be fly-by-night candidates to win, so they move closer to be considered in the mix. The big ride begins now.

Lock
P.G. Sittenfeld* (D endorsed) ‡

Likely
David Mann* (D,C endorsed) ‡
Chris Seelbach* (D endorsed) ‡
Wendell Young* (D endorsed) ‡

In the Mix:
Derek Bauman (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Ozie Davis III (D endorsed) ‡
Tamaya Dennard (D,C endorsed) ‡
Michelle Dillingham (D endorsed) ‡
Leslie Jones (D endorsed) ‡
Greg Landsman (D endorsed) ‡
Amy Murray* (R,C endorsed) ‡
Jeff Pastor (R endorsed) ‡
Laure Quinlivan (D) ‡
Christopher Smitherman* (R but pretending to be I and for some reason G endorsed) ‡


Outside Chance
Tonya Dumas (D) ‡
Manuel Foggie
Henry Frondorf (C endorsed) (D) ‡
Seth Maney (R endorsed) ‡
Beverly Odoms (D) ‡
Tamie Sullivan (R) ‡
Peterson Mingo ‡

Also Ran
Erica Black-Johnson (I) ‡
Cristina Burcica (I) ‡
Herschel Chalk II
Brian Garry (D) ‡
Kelli Prather (D) ‡
Theo Barnes ‡

Not on the Ballot
Dawud Mustafa
Kit Earls (G endorsed)
Mary Hall
Damon Lynch IV
Michael Rachford
Edith Thrower
Orlando Welborn (D)
Matt Teaford (I)

Candidate Twitter List: I have created a list of candidates on Twitter. Here is the actual list Twitter handles for the candidates.

Key
* = Incumbent
‡ = On Ballot (signatures turned in)
D= Democratic Party
R= Republican Party
C= Charter Committee (aka Charter Party)
G= Green Party
I= Independent
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